CATL is the world’s largest maker of batteries, which are by far the highest-value component of EVs. In recent years, the company has gained considerable share globally and now accounts for nearly 40% of global EV-battery shipments, more than its three closest competitors combined. Over time, we have seen CATL’s brand emerging as an asset in itself, as its technology and quality differentiate its products from what were largely seen as commodity items.
Out of
Our Minds
Hit-or-Miss Nature of Video Games Belies Industry’s Consistent Earnings
Video games, much like movies, are a lumpy business. Every so often a hit comes along upon which a publisher can build a long-running franchise—Activision Blizzard’s Call of Duty, for example, just released a well-received 21st installment. Other times, you can find gamers and investors alike grumbling over the industry delays, bugs, and titles that completely flop.
Still, for a lumpy business, the gaming industry is consistently very profitable. Just look at how it stacks up against the Consumer Staples sector, which is arguably the definition of consistency due to the reliability of demand for basic goods. Economic returns, as measured by cash flow return on investment, have not been as stable for video-game companies over the past 30 years as they have been for consumer staples, but their averages are closer than you might expect—and gaming companies have grown faster:
Global Providers of Interactive Home Entertainment vs. Consumer Staples Companies
Source: Harding Loevner, HOLT database.
Morocco Expands Its Vistas
You can see Morocco from Europe, nine miles away from southernmost Spain across the Strait of Gibraltar, yet the African nation flies under the radar for many global investors. Nevertheless, Morocco’s US$150 billion economy is one of the most developed in Africa, featuring advanced infrastructure that has improved the quality of life for its 38 million inhabitants, facilitated trade, and encouraged private investment. Now the country is embarking on an ambitious program to boost growth even more over the next decade.
Japan’s Mid-Quarter Market Turmoil Ends in Recovery for Fast-Growing Small Caps
The central bank’s decision in late July caused a swift appreciation in the yen, a currency shift that disrupted the widely used strategy known as the yen carry trade, where investors borrowed at low Japanese rates to purchase higher-yielding foreign assets. The rapid unwinding of these positions, combined with weaker US economic data and disappointing earnings from US technology giants, culminated in a 12% drop in Japan’s Nikkei index on August 5, while expected volatility in the US equity market spiked to a level not seen outside of major crises.
Chinese Stocks Get a Jolt
There were additional measures aimed at boosting the real-estate sector, which rebounded by about 50% in late September, as seen in the chart below. The policy announcements included cutting mortgage rates for existing homeowners by as much as 50 basis points and cutting the down payment requirement for second home purchases by 15%.
Momentum Investing and the Power of FOMO
Over the last 18 months, disciplined fundamental investors have been challenged by an episode of price momentum concentrated in a few of the largest stocks in the market. Price momentum refers to a phenomenon where securities whose prices have risen are more likely to keep rising in the short run, while those that have fallen are more likely to experience further declines. The concept of momentum has garnered sufficient adherents to secure its place in the pantheon of portfolio analytics and inspire the creation of numerous indices and ETFs designed to exploit it.
We have deliberately resisted incorporating the momentum factor into our investment process for several reasons. First, simple price momentum does not provide a fundamental basis for making investment decisions. Serial correlation of share price changes has, at best, a weak connection to the underlying business you’re investing in, and nothing to do with what it is worth. Second, momentum investing is literally “chasing” stocks that have already gone up or outperformed (or selling those that already went down or underperformed). This approach leads to higher turnover and trading costs. Lastly, although momentum investing has shown net positive returns over very long periods, there is considerable volatility in its return path. Momentum works until it doesn’t, and when it doesn’t, all the gains you made can be reversed more quickly than you can exit the market. This whipsaw effect makes momentum investing much harder to stomach in practice than it appears in theory.
Compass Group’s Scale Helps It Win Catering Customers
Compass Group, a new holding in the Harding Loevner Global Equity strategy, is the largest food-catering company in the world. Based in Chertsey, England, the business provides everything from corporate dining to stadium concessions—including at Stamford Bridge, home of Chelsea Football Club—to food services for hospitals, retirement homes, universities such as Texas A&M, and even offshore oil rigs.
While some of its rivals have recognizable names—Aramark, Sodexo—the global food-service industry is still so fragmented that Compass’s 15% market share is 2.5 times that of the next-largest player. This scale is a key competitive advantage because it allows Compass to earn attractive margins while providing better service at better prices than competitors, and lower than the cost of a business managing its food needs in-house (which many still do). Customers that outsource their catering to Compass tend to be loyal—96% renew their contracts. This high retention rate along with Compass’s demonstrated ability to pass on inflationary cost increases to customers are evidence of its strong bargaining power over buyers.
Food service isn’t a particularly fast-growing industry, but Compass has plenty of room to increase its market share by converting more self-operators to customers as well as by using its strong balance sheet to acquire smaller competitors. The company has been a serial acquirer but also a smart one. Its sales have continued to grow at a high-single-digit rate through a combination of M&A and winning new business, and the stock has risen at a compound annual rate of 9% (in US dollars) over the past decade.
Why Own International Stocks?
Some investors look at the difference between international and US returns and, expecting that current conditions will persist, wonder what place non-US equities have in a portfolio today. But while it’s easy to fall into that line of thinking, history suggests it is likely wrong. The relative performance of US and non-US stocks has historically been a cyclical phenomenon, and as the chart below shows, their indexes have regularly swapped between leader and laggard over the past 50 years.
Streaming’s Road to Profitability
In the pre-streaming era, cable companies wielded enormous pricing power over consumers by building regional monopolies with few substitutes. Today, Netflix, Disney, and others are attempting to capture the same profit pool that was once controlled by those cable providers. To do so, scale is crucial.
But achieving scale isn’t as easy as loading up an app with as many good shows and movies as possible. Content is expensive, and the formula for profitability is simple: number of subscribers multiplied by average revenue per user minus content costs. Disney overspent on content during the pandemic years in a race to add subscribers. Because of this, the frenzied spending on content has abated. According to Harding Loevner analysts Uday Cheruvu, CFA, and Igor Tishin, PhD, Netflix has shown that to achieve scale and remain profitable, a service needs to offer a sufficient breadth and depth of content so that every person in a household finds the service useful and there is no incentive to cancel—but not so much that it becomes too costly to produce. Watch the videos above for highlights from their discussion at the Harding Loevner 2024 Investor Forum.
BBVA Takes a Risk By Going Hostile
After being rebuffed on its US$12.9 billion “friendly” offer at the beginning of May—a 30% premium to Sabadell’s market cap at the time—BBVA came back with a US$13.1 billion offer that it plans to present directly to Sabadell shareholders, bypassing management. This kind of hostile merger is a rarity among banks. Mergers are risky enough on their own. Hostile mergers amplify those risks, and hostile mergers in the highly regulated world of banking amplify them even further.
Analyst Isaac May presents a few of the biggest reasons why hostile mergers for banks can be risky, and portfolio manager Moon Surana presents counterarguments for why BBVA might be able to overcome those risks.
Growth Is Beating Value in the US. Will International Follow?
As seen in the chart above, investors largely favored value stocks as the global economy began to reemerge from the COVID-19 pandemic following emergency-use authorization of the first vaccine in late 2020. This headwind for growth stocks has been most significant, and enduring, in international markets. For example, the MSCI All Country World ex US Growth Index lagged its value counterpart by nearly 30 percentage points in the three years through October 2023. But while the value rally has continued outside the US, 2023 saw investors reembrace US growth stocks despite their relatively high valuations.
Chipmaking Is Getting More Complex. Daifuku’s Smart Monorails Keep Fabs Running Smoothly
In semiconductor manufacturing, a single speck of dust poses a threat to production. It’s why cleanrooms, the sterile labs where silicon wafers get etched and cut into pieces, and then packaged as finished chips—with thousands of steps in between—contain few humans. To reduce the risk of contamination and defects, materials are largely transported by automated monorail systems that travel along the ceiling.
Source: Daifuku.
TOMRA Struggles to Save the World and Turn a Profit
TOMRA has a dominant business position. The company’s scale, brand, and service network are difficult to match for smaller competitors or new entrants. It has a 70% global market share in reverse vending machines, and roughly 50% of the market for sorting machines. A third division focuses on adapting its sorting technology for production and processing in the food industry.
Valuation is in the Eye of the Beholder
In UK soccer, the sport with which I am involved, in contrast, the league is composed of linked divisions arranged in a hierarchy where membership of each division changes at the end of every season—based on merit, so that the top few teams in each division move up in the hierarchy, and the bottom few clubs move down. The drama around the joy of promotion to a higher division and the misery of relegation to a lower one is part of what makes the sport so compelling; for fans (and owners) of clubs involved in the battle to win one or avoid the other, the chase can be both thrilling and terrifying.
Frontier Markets Require an Active Look
In June, asset manager BlackRock announced its intention to liquidate its Frontier & Select EM ETF, which once had assets exceeding US$400 million. The company cited currency liquidity challenges in several smaller frontier markets as the main reason for its decision.
BlackRock’s decision to close its passive FEM fund underscores our long-held belief that the idiosyncratic nature of frontier and small emerging markets, as well as their volatility and liquidity characteristics, make them much better suited for an active rather than passive investment strategy.
Valuations Look Attractive for International Small Caps
International small caps continue to trade near their cheapest valuations relative to international large caps since the 2009 global recession. Although they are also valued at a discount to US small caps, the spread hasn’t changed much over the last two decades.
Even relative to their own historical valuation multiples, international small caps look cheap, with the MSCI All Country World ex US Small Cap Index trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.8, 19% below its 2021 peak. This indicates there is an attractive valuation opportunity for small-cap investors, especially with respect to some high-quality, fast-growing international small companies.
Indian Stock Valuations at All-Time High
One way to understand valuations is the required rate of return, which measures the minimum return for which investors will be willing to allocate capital. An outside view that we refer to is a valuation framework from UBS’ data-analytics platform HOLT that backs out the implied required rate of return investors are demanding from securities in the market, referred to as the market implied yield. At a country level, India’s median market-implied yield of 1.4% is at an all-time low for India and an all-time high premium relative to the broader EM index.
Japan’s Value Rally Persists
As we’ve explored previously, the performance of certain factors can shift markedly in just a few years. Time will tell if this value rally gives way to better performance for more expensive, higher-quality, faster-growing companies in Japan.
The Magnificent Seven Skew Market Returns, Style Factors
A small group of US stocks, dubbed the Magnificent Seven, continues to dominate returns in global markets. As seen in the chart above, nearly half of the gains in the MSCI All Country World Index for the first six months of 2024, and all of the gains in the second quarter, came from just these seven stocks.
The phenomenon is not new, although it has become more extreme this year. The Magnificent Seven has accounted for about a third of the index’s return since the end of 2022:
How Retailers Are Managing Disruption by China’s Shein, Temu
The three most important considerations for companies in the retail industry are product, price, and place. This is because a retailer generally differentiates itself through what it sells, how much it charges, or how convenient it is for customers to shop there. Therefore, when new rivals enter the industry, they tend to target perceived shortcomings in one or more of these areas.
The clearest example of how these dynamics can play out has been the rise of e-commerce over the past two decades. Websites such as Amazon.com were able to take market share from store-based retailers by providing shoppers a greater assortment, price transparency and savings, and the ability to shop from their homes.
Now, a new class of online retailers is finding room to further disrupt the 3Ps of retail by offering deep discounts on trendy apparel and other impulse purchases. They include Shein, a company that is aiming to go public soon, Temu, a subsidiary of China’s PDD Holdings, as well as TikTok Shop, a shopping feature that was added to the namesake social-media app owned by China’s ByteDance. (While Shein has moved its headquarters to Singapore, its operations are also primarily in China.) All three cross-border operators are bringing specific competitive advantages to large retail markets such as the US and Brazil.
Our 2024 Semi-Annual Letter to Shareholders
It has been our long-standing belief that high-quality businesses will weather difficult or shifting economic environments better than most. This, in part, is due to their operational resilience that allows us to hold on to our investments in their shares during periods of stock market turmoil.
In our semi-annual letter to shareholders, we examine the conundrum of the high-quality return premium, and its possible explanation based in behavioral finance. And we emphasize our dedication to our rigorous investment process in considering companies fueling the recent artificial intelligence boom.
Our long experience may not be a guarantee of skill or prescience. But it does afford us perspective on the ways technological advances affect a wide variety of industries, and the companies operating within them globally. We’re optimistic that our thoughtful and evolving process to analyze those businesses, will, with dedicated effort, yield good long-term investment results.
Investments involve risk and loss is possible.
The Portfolio’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be read and considered carefully before investing. The statutory and summary prospectuses contain this and other important information about the investment company. They may be obtained by calling toll free (877) 435-8105, or visiting hardingloevnerfunds.com.
The Portfolio is distributed by Quasar Distributors, LLC.
Nigerian Banks Look for Inflection Point
Since last year’s election of former Lagos governor Bola Tinubu to the presidency, Nigeria has implemented a series of economic reforms designed to stabilize the country after a decade of mismanagement and allow it to profit from its own potential. What we as investors are looking for is the proverbial inflection point, a time when the reforms start producing tangible economic benefits. That would be good for the nation in general, and it would also be particularly good for Zenith Bank, Guaranty Trust Bank, and other large, high-quality Nigerian banks.
Over the Barrel: The Complex Task of Decarbonizing the World
Fossil fuels are the lifeblood of modern society, used for everything from heating homes to powering cars and planes to generating the electricity that keeps the internet running. Crude oil, natural gas, and coal currently meet about 80% of our energy needs globally, but 75% of carbon dioxide emissions come from finding and burning these fossil fuels. There is a consensus about transitioning away from those sources of energy, given how much they contribute to climate change, but there is not a consensus on how much our reliance upon them can be cut or what will replace them. There does not appear to be one clear replacement and there will likely be multiple pathways to decarbonizing the global economy. To understand our energy future, it is helpful to have a perspective on past efforts to develop new energy sources. In this excerpt from the 2024 Harding Loevner Investor Forum, our analysts offer some perspective on the history of energy transition.
Mobileye Steers Closer to Autonomous Driving
When most people think of automation in driving, they think of cars that could operate anywhere without a human driver, or what the Society of Automotive Engineers calls “Level 5 automation.” But many cars on the road today offer some level of automation, whether it’s lane centering features or adaptive cruise control, or both. The key distinction in these so-called Level 1 and Level 2 systems is that these features support the driver, rather than replacing the driver as the higher levels would.
What If Fashion Were Taxed Like Cigarettes?
The lower house of France’s Parliament passed a bill in February that would impose a “sin tax” of up to 10 euros or 50% of the selling price on fast-fashion clothing, a severe penalty given that many of these products cost less than €10. The bill would also ban advertising and demands that companies in the industry disclose the environmental impact of their businesses. The bill was approved unanimously and moved to the upper house of Parliament. If it becomes law, it will make France one of the first countries to impose this type of penalty on fast-fashion companies.
A Quality Problem
The difficulty in pinning down exactly what’s behind such canonical factors as quality, value, and momentum shouldn’t be a surprise. Factors can only be observed after the fact, but the underlying mechanisms that produce them are hidden. They are birthed from the complex interplay of buying and selling against a backdrop of economic and geopolitical shifts, all woven together by intricate feedback loops. Because they emerge as properties of a complex system, and because their returns wax and wane over decades, pinpointing a definitive root cause is quite the challenge.
India’s Net-Zero Progress
Maria Lernerman, CFA, portfolio manager for our Global Paris-Aligned and International Carbon Transition Equity strategies, recently traveled to India to observe the country’s emission reduction initiatives first-hand. In this video, she shares thoughts from her trip and highlights hurdles that the country must overcome to progress toward net-zero status.
At Costco, Lower Prices, Higher Club Fees May Stoke Competition
Sparkling water isn’t the only product looking cheaper at Costco these days. During a quarterly earnings call in March, Chief Financial Officer Richard Galanti seemed to signal an inflection point when he rattled off a variety of goods for which prices were being lowered: Kirkland batteries (from US$17.99 down to US$15.99) and reading glasses (US$18.99 to US$16.99), as well as sporting goods and lawn-care products. A bag of frozen fruit was even reduced by US$4. Plus, there was a more subtle clue about the direction of retail pricing: inflation was mentioned just seven times on the call, compared with 35 times during the March 2023 earnings call. (As for the recent trade disruptions in the Panama Canal and Red Sea, management said this hadn’t pushed up prices because of the long-term nature of shipping contracts.)
Japan’s Reforms Lift Stocks of Lowest-Quality Companies
Japan remains the single-largest country weight in the MSCI All Country World ex US Small Cap Index. However, the country’s weak economic growth, aging population, tight labor conditions, and chronic deflation have long made it a challenge to find high-quality, growing companies there.
Government regulators and the Tokyo Stock Exchange recently introduced a flurry of reforms aimed at improving corporate governance and shareholder returns. As discussed in our fourth quarter 2023 report, these actions have primarily benefited the cheapest stocks, given that they are typically associated with the least-profitable and slowest-growing companies. Additionally, the Bank of Japan has raised short-term interest rates, ending its decade-long era of negative rates. This landmark move boosted Japanese value stocks in the first quarter, further exacerbating the region’s style headwinds.
As the chart above to the right shows, the cheapest stocks in Japan outperformed the most expensive by nearly 1,600 basis points in the first quarter. For the trailing 12-month period, it’s worse: The spread between the most expensive and cheapest quintile was nearly 46%. The left and center charts show that investors also have favored slower-growing and lower-quality companies.
We don’t know how long this value rally will persist. In the short run, some of the changes have clearly exacerbated, and could prolong, style headwinds for higher-quality, faster-growing companies. But over the long term, the changes in Japanese business policy and mindset are positive developments. As more businesses raise their standards, the number of high-quality companies in Japan may increase.
NVIDIA’s Competitive Structure May Be More Fragile Than Its Valuation Implies
Quality Is Becoming More Affordable in China, Less So In India
While challenges in China persist, Chinese companies look better than China’s economy.
Some key parts of the Chinese economy continue to stabilize. Manufacturing activities expanded in March for the first time in six months, led by new orders from domestic customers as well as by export orders. The government is pushing for more domestic production in strategic industries such as green technology and advanced manufacturing. Growth in services activities has remained good, with travel and tourism continuing to rebound. We are also seeing increasing localization as Chinese companies prefer Chinese suppliers over multinational corporations to de-risk their own supply chain. This is leading to domestic market-share gains for many companies. Finally, valuations for some high-quality companies look compelling at these levels.
Quality growth stocks in China have derated significantly since 2019 and are now trading at a nearly 40% discount to developed-market counterparts and emerging markets (EMs) as a whole. Conversely, while valuations of Indian companies have moderated slightly over the past year, they continue to be expensive relative to the rising valuations in developed markets. Quality growth stocks in India still trade at a significant premium to other EMs.
India’s evolving economy is promising, as witnessed by our analysts on a recent trip to the country; however, the stock market rally in response has probably gone too far, especially with regards to small and mid-cap stocks. Today, valuations remain stretched across most sectors.
Note: Top QG quadrant is defined as companies with a QR score > 0.5 and a GR score > 0.5. VR Score based on weighted average.
Chips of the Trade: TSMC, Samsung Benefit from AI Demand
Expectations are that semiconductor industry revenue growth will accelerate to annualized double-digit levels this decade, spurred by demand for AI chips. This would be a growth rate well above levels that we’ve seen since the mid-1990s, with predictions that the roughly US$50 billion dollars of AI chips sold in 2023 could rise to US$400 billion dollars of sales before the end of the decade.
Amazon’s Latest Logistical Feat Delivers Long-Term Profit Gains
But with so much focus on AI, what is perhaps under-appreciated is that Amazon’s e-commerce business recently underwent a transformation of its own—a rethinking of how it gets customers’ packages from point A to point B. Because of this new strategy, the business, where profitability has been low and erratic, may be on the cusp of a new era in which margins finally reach—and sustain—an attractive level.
Baidu Abandons Moonshots to Search for Earthly Profits
Ramadan’s Shifting Dates Have Complex Effects on Businesses
The holy month of Ramadan affects companies and products differently each year, and it is essential for investors in Muslim-majority countries to understand these effects. The holiday, during which Muslims fast from dawn to dusk, starts 10-12 days earlier each year, unlike fixed holidays such as Christmas. This year, Ramadan starts at sunset on March 10 and lasts until April 9.
Ramadan’s Slowly Shifting Seasonality
Timing of Ramadan relative to Northern Hemisphere seasons, 2010-2040
The fact that the holy month moves each year means that the effects of Ramadan on businesses change over time. Recently, when Ramadan was during the summer, it was a significant headwind for companies such as brewers, as the fast suppressed demand for beer during what would otherwise be a peak month. But now as Ramadan is moving earlier in the year, that headwind will lessen.
How Persistent Are Quality and Growth?
How companies perform on those measures can change over time. Industry dynamics evolve, which can lead to a shift in competitive positioning. Macroeconomic cycles and deviations in management strategy can also alter the long-term outlook. Even companies that consistently rank highly for quality and growth must be continuously assessed for signs of deterioration in their financial health, competitive advantages, and other factors. The challenge isn’t just determining the businesses that meet our criteria today, but also which businesses will sustain their quality and growth characteristics over the long run.
Fewer Babies Means Better Business for Diaper Maker
Japan has been undergoing a baby bust for decades. In the early 1970s, there were years where more than 2 million babies were born in Japan, but since then, those numbers have declined steadily. By the 1990s, there were about 1.2 million babies born each year in Japan, while in 2022, births fell below 800,000 for the first time.
Source: The Statistics Bureau of Japan
Skiing in Avalanche Terrain Is a Lesson in Risk Management
Cognitive biases can wreak havoc on decision making. That’s why the Harding Loevner investment process is structured to help avoid errors in thinking that can lead investors to make irrational decisions. By identifying a strict set of criteria for the companies we hold and the method by which we track and debate these requisite characteristics, there’s less room for human behavioral flaws to influence our actions.
Backcountry skiers—who routinely navigate avalanche-prone terrain—seek to avoid danger in much the same way, says Patrick Todd, CFA, a portfolio manager and analyst at Harding Loevner. For example, every trip to the backcountry involves scrutinizing the snow conditions beforehand and making a pre-commitment that outlines the actions he and his group will take should the conditions differ once they ascend the mountain. Sometimes, the best decision is to turn back despite the time, effort, and money that already went into the trip. When skiers wrestle with this decision, it’s the sunk-cost fallacy at play, one of the many cognitive biases that can rear its ugly head in backcountry skiing—and investing.
In the video above, Patrick discusses more of the parallels between the risks in investing and backcountry skiing and how a thoughtful process can mitigate both.
Low Debt Companies Fare Better in High Interest Rate Times
Portfolio manager Andrew West, CFA, explains how selecting companies with strong balance sheets and low debt safeguards against the potential erosion of the value when interest rates are elevated.
Can a Raw Deal Be Good for Netflix?
Japan Digging Out of Chronic Deflation One IT Worker at a Time
Our 2023 Letter to Shareholders
Three years since the first COVID-19 vaccine was approved, growth investors have felt the pain of a relative bear market compared to their value peers. In our annual letter to shareholders, we examine the current economic climate, and discuss why we believe that the types of companies in which we invest are well-positioned to navigate the challenges ahead.
In sum, this time is no different from similar periods in the past in which our taste for high-quality, rapidly growing companies has been out of step with market fashion. We foresee an eventual return of investor focus on such fundamental factors in the face of uncertain and slower economic and corporate profit growth. We therefore remain committed to our favored targets, while reinforcing our attention to the price we are asked to pay for them.
Investments involve risk and loss is possible.
The Portfolio’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be read and considered carefully before investing. The statutory and summary prospectuses contain this and other important information about the investment company. They may be obtained by calling toll free (877) 435-8105, or visiting hardingloevnerfunds.com.
The Portfolio is distributed by Quasar Distributors, LLC.
Experience in a “Wicked” World
Analyzing Industry Structure through Porter’s Five Forces Model
As bottom-up investors, we aim to invest in high-quality growth businesses at reasonable prices to provide superior risk-adjusted returns over the long term. To determine what constitutes a high-quality growth business, we research a company’s management, financial strength, growth prospects, and we closely examine the industry in which it operates to determine the company’s competitive advantage.
It’s as important to examine a company’s industry as it is to examine the fundamentals of a company. An analysis of industry structure can inform how well-positioned a company is relative to competitors, as well as the profit potential for the company.
Our analysis is guided by Harvard University professor Michael Porter’s Five Forces, which were first introduced in a 1979 issue of Harvard Business Review and later detailed in his 1980 book, Competitive Strategy: Techniques for Analyzing Industries and Competitors.
In this six-part video series, we examine each Porter Force and discuss how we use them to analyze industries. Watch the series introduction below and click through to see how we leverage Michael Porter’s Five Forces framework for industry analysis.
Japan’s Past Hints at China’s Future
China faces a demographic shift similar to Japan three decades ago. Portfolio manager Jingyi Li explains how that comparison can help guide investors looking at China today.
NVIDIA and the Cautionary Tale of Cisco Systems
Competitive Advantage and Pricing Power
Portfolio manager Jingyi Li discusses how several Global Equities portfolio companies are using their pricing power to navigate through this period of higher interest rates and higher inflation.
The Democratic Republic of The Congo Could Be the Next Big Frontier Market, Eventually
Navigating Conflict in the Middle East
Portfolio manager Anix Vyas, CFA, discusses how the current conflict in the Middle East is affecting International Small Companies portfolio holding CyberArk.
Chinese Companies Look Better than China’s Economy
In 2023, Chinese markets have been roiled by continued trade tensions, slowing economic growth, and deleveraging in the property sector. Despite this difficult backdrop, there are reasons to be optimistic about the growth prospects of some Chinese companies. Portfolio Managers Andrew West, CFA, and Lee Gao discuss their current perspectives on China with Portfolio Specialist Apurva Schwartz, including how they weigh the opportunities and risks of investing in the market.
Slowdown in Economic Growth
Real estate, the biggest source of wealth for Chinese consumers, was in bubble territory and has been slowing for a while. This has negatively affected consumer confidence and household consumption.
Cable Strikes Back
I see it differently. Viewed through the lens of Michael Porter’s competitive forces, which we use at Harding Loevner to analyze industry dynamics, the dispute was a clear example of a change in the bargaining power of buyers amid the changing economics of streaming services.
Ozempic and the Substitution Trade
The twist is that Ozempic, a trade name for semaglutide, is a diabetes drug, not an obesity drug. Semaglutide is however effective in inducing weight loss; its creator Novo Nordisk markets a separate version called Wegovy specifically for obesity. Wegovy became so popular there were shortages of it, so doctors began prescribing Ozempic “off label” for a condition other than its intended use. That popularity fueled Novo Nordisk shares and this month it pushed past LVMH as Europe’s most valuable company.
Growth Opportunities from Electrification
Portfolio manager Scott Crawshaw highlights several companies in our Emerging Markets portfolio that are poised to benefit from increasing electrical power demand.
Meta Accelerates Its AI Game
In its second-quarter earnings conference call, Meta founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg detailed how AI permeates the company. For example, nearly all of Meta’s advertisers now use at least one AI-based product, allowing them, for instance, to personalize and customize ads. He also touted an increase of 7% in time spent on Facebook after launching AI-recommended content from accounts that users don’t follow.
Now the company plans an aggressive push of its own version of generative AI, the kinds of large language models that have gotten so much attention lately. In July, the company released an open-source—i.e., free for even commercial use—generative AI platform called Llama 2, which Meta hopes will emerge as a competitor to OpenAI’s GPT-4. Meta is betting its platform will unleash users’ creative potential and result in a flood of content. If that occurs, Meta’s powerful algorithms for matching content with users—4 billion of them across all of its platforms—will become indispensable as a content-discovery tool with a rich set of monetization options from advertising to ecommerce to subscriptions.
Generative AI Through a Fundamental-Research Lens
Anyone who has interacted with popular AI models—asked them about the mysteries of life and the cosmos or created convincing Van Gogh replicas using AI-enabled image generators—can sense that we may be in the midst of a technological revolution. That prospect has consumed equity markets lately, with seven US tech-related stocks responsible for most of the market appreciation in the second quarter.
As an investor in high-quality, growing businesses, we have always tried to position this portfolio to benefit from secular trends, the kind that transcend economic cycles and are driven by fundamental changes in key areas such as tech. Still, it is incredibly difficult for anyone to predict how such trends will unfold; the vicissitudes of cryptocurrency are a sobering reminder of this. Furthermore, as seen with the rise of the internet and, later, mobile connectivity, technology is merely a platform; it’s the applications of the technology that eventually determine many of the winners and losers. In the case of generative AI, some of the future applications may not yet be conceivable, although many companies, even outside the tech field, are now pondering the possibilities.
India: Four Takeaways from Our Travels
Vietnam’s Labor Costs, Taxes Attract Chinese Manufacturers
Portfolio Manager Wenting Shen, CFA, and Portfolio Specialist Apurva Schwartz discuss why Chinese companies are relocating production facilities to Southeast Asia. Watch the rest of their conversation.
What P&G’s Pricing Decisions Tell Us About Inflation
As the world’s largest consumer-goods company, Procter & Gamble provides insight into what’s driving the pricing decisions at big brands.
How Are Earnings of Emerging Markets Companies Holding Up?
Portfolio manager Pradipta Chakrabortty discusses the earnings bright spots within emerging markets regions and sectors.
Why Own International Companies?
While US companies account for just over 60% of the market capitalization of the MSCI All Country World Index, their weight is a tad misleading given that a few technology giants—Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft—weigh heavily on the scale. Together, those four are valued at nearly US$8 trillion, more than the next 15 largest US stocks combined.
Small Caps: Adventures in Fundamental Research
The superheroes of the stock market—mainly US corporations valued at or close to a trillion dollars—tend to dominate investment news and research. And yet little-known small companies—often based outside the US—that never generate a headline remain some of the most vibrant sources of innovation. If the biggest large caps sell the finished products that investors and consumers know well, small caps often occupy a small niche along the global supply chain, providing a critical piece of technology known only to its intended audience.
Macro Do’s and Don’ts
One of our more acid-tongued colleagues likes to observe that “just because we don’t do macro, it doesn’t mean the macro cannot do us.” The observation is a challenge to our bottom-up investment philosophy and merits a response. What does his comment really mean? Is he correct?
Demolition Work in Progress
Going Home: An Account from China’s “Zero-COVID” Frontline
But days before Shen’s departure, new complications arose: outbreaks of the Omicron variant in several Chinese cities, including Shanghai, were prompting citywide lockdowns. The flight was still due to depart, but had been rerouted to Fuzhou, a coastal city across the strait from Taiwan, 450 miles to the Southwest.
The natural—some would say, prudent—decision at this point might have been to postpone her trip. But Shen, worried she might not easily get another ticket, pressed ahead. Here are her travel bulletins.
Does the Equity Market Know Something the Fixed Income Market Doesn’t?
Russia, Risk, and Decision-Making
While ours certainly is not the only firm to have been caught out by Russian exposure, and the past few months of rising inflation and interest rate fears have in some ways brought even bigger headaches for our quality-growth investing style, the Russia losses were still “a gut punch,” as a colleague recently told NPR. And we have been asking ourselves, what did we get wrong, and debating what could have been predicted.
Beauty and the Beast
Much of the debate surrounding indexing centers on the relative merits of taking an active versus passive investment approach. But the question of how indexing might be reshaping market structure is largely unexplored. The standing assumption is that, since passive investment flows mirror the prevailing distribution of capital, index trades are bereft of information and therefore have no effect on the pricing of the underlying securities; hence the overall scale of indexing is irrelevant. But this assumption becomes more tenuous as the share of passively managed assets grows. What if passive increased to, say, 100% of all equity assets? Would those investments still have no effect on prices?
It’s unclear how the widespread use of indexing may be affecting market structure; that is, at what point the sheer quantity of assets mimicking market behavior could start to change the behavior. Maybe it already has.
A Ground’s Eye View on Inflation and Its Persistence
The outsized demand for durable goods has run headlong into the diminished supply. While the springboard for price increases may have been reduced supply, the strength and persistence of those increases, which are now feeding through to labor markets, are raising the specter that aggregate demand is outpacing even normalized aggregate supply. There is precious little that monetary policy can do to counter supply-led inflation, but—Omicron willing—it is likely to be temporary. But if inflation comes to be led by stubborn excess demand, then tight monetary policy is the orthodox response, and we can expect central banks to hit the economy over the head with a brick to prevent a sustained wage-price spiral. Demand-led inflation would have significant implications for asset prices.
Inflation is notoriously difficult to forecast; even some at the US Federal Reserve (Fed) concede that it has no working model for inflation.1 We could do no better and accordingly make no effort to forecast future inflation. What we can do is talk to the companies we own or follow and tease out the impact on their earnings from the rising input costs they’re experiencing; their changing bargaining power vis à vis their suppliers; whether they are able to pass on higher costs to their customers before stifling demand; and how all that is coloring their business outlook. The following represents what our research analysts have been able to glean from those conversations.
What’s Driving China’s Regulatory Transformation
One can only speculate on the reasons for this synchronous timing, but one possibility that stands out is the confluence of the five-year policy and leadership cycles in China. This is the first year of the 2021-25 Five-Year Plan, but more importantly, it is the final full year before the top 200 or so members of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China are selected at its National Congress in October 2022. It bears remembering that those politicians are similar to counterparts elsewhere in facing challenges that have diverted them from other priorities. They spent the first two years of their terms coping with escalating US-China trade tensions, and just when “normal order” loomed after the signing of the Phase One trade agreement, COVID-19 hijacked everyone’s lives. Only recently have they gotten a chance to work on much-delayed goals.
Culture Club
There are many similarities between cultures at football clubs and investment organizations, despite the underlying processes required by their core activities—making decisions on the pitch about how to try and score and defend or making decisions about buying and selling securities—being very different.
In both industries, the goal is for the team to be greater than the sum of its parts. On the pitch, an individual must rely on teammates, but certainly not debate or challenge them. Rather, coaches teach decision making so that, like muscle memory, it is instantaneous and requires little active thought.
At Harding Loevner, rules and processes constrain decision making to prevent it from being dominated by cognitive biases. Colleagues think for themselves but must expose their ideas to challenge. This is the core of our investment culture—what we call “collaboration without consensus.” We believe that one of the most difficult biases to overcome in conducting research is the tendency to give precedence to evidence that confirms our beliefs and to ignore evidence that challenges them. So, it is important that our ideas be continuously exposed to challenge. However, this leads to other problems. Humans, as social beings, generally don’t like disagreement; they are literally fearful of it. That’s why an important part of a culture of collaboration without consensus is that it be enabled by both transparency and the value of tolerance. We strive to sustain an environment in which colleagues do not feel threatened by disagreement and recognize that challenges—while discomfiting—are essential for good decision making.